Breathing room for Biden: Big summer wins ease 2024 doubts

10. Chris Murphy: The Connecticut senator is at the center of negotiations for a new legislation on guns in the wake of the mass school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. He is also an articulate voice on liberal policy, but by no means a strict ideologue. "He seems to understand that politics is the art of accomplishing the possible, not merely aiming for the impossible and blaming the opposition," wrote political analyst Stu Rothenberg in a column earlier this month that speculated about what's next for Murphy. Murphy isn't receiving much attention as a potential 2024 candidate, but I think he would be an intriguing one if he did decide to run.

9. Roy Cooper: Getting elected -- and re-elected -- as a Democrat in North Carolina is no simple thing to do. But that's exactly what Cooper has done. And there is a template for a southern governor (Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) to run for and win the White House. As The New York Times noted in a story late last year, Cooper has a record that could appeal to Democratic primary voters: He helped repeal a bill that required people at government-run facilities to use bathrooms that corresponded to the gender on their birth certificate. He has also issued executive orders on paid parental leave and carbon neutrality. Cooper's biggest issue in a 2024 race? He isn't well known nationally. At all.

8. Cory Booker: The New Jersey senator's 2020 presidential campaign never really got out of the starting blocks. But many of the things that made Booker appealing on paper in 2020 remain true: He is a charismatic and articulate politician with a healthy dose of star power. Plus, having run and lost once for the Democratic nomination, he is likely to be wiser about a bid the second time around. Of course, the fact that Booker's last effort was unsuccessful raises the question of "why,? which Booker would have to answer in order to gain traction in a subsequent race.

7. Amy Klobuchar: Unlike Booker, the Minnesota senator did have a moment in the 2020 race. In the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary, she looked like the momentum candidate and looked like she had a chance to pull of an upset win. She wound up finishing third, behind Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Less than a month later, she was out of the race and throwing her support to Biden. The way she ran -- and the way she ended her campaign -- earned Klobuchar kudos, which could be useful if she runs again in 2024.

6. Elizabeth Warren: My eyebrows were raised when Warren took to the pages of The New York Times in April with an op-ed entitled: "Democrats Can Avoid Disaster in November." Her argument was that Democrats needed to pass as much of their agenda as possible before November and that voters would reward them for doing so. Which, well, questionable. The op-ed included these lines: "Despite pandemic relief, infrastructure investments and the historic Supreme Court confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson, we promised more -- and voters remember those promises." Whoa! That sort of language puts Warren in a position to say "I told you so" if Democrats, as expected, get clobbered at the polls in 2022. And could serve as a launching pad for a second bid for the White House.

5. Gavin Newsom: A funny thing happened when Republicans in California tried to recall Newsom as governor: it made him much, much stronger. Newsom not only easily defeated the 2021 recall effort, but is now a huge favorite to win a second term this November. That recall effort also gave Newsom massive amounts of national exposure to the donor and activist class, which would come in handy if he decided to run in 2024. Newsom, at least at the moment, is playing coy. "It's not even on my radar," he told the San Francisco Chronicle in May of a potential presidential bid. Which, fine. But Newsom has always had BIG ambitions.

4. Pete Buttigieg: When Buttigieg, the breakout star of the 2020 Democratic presidential race, took the job as secretary of Transportation in the Biden administration, many observers wondered why. After all, it isn't the sort of lofty perch that positions like Attorney General or Secretary of State are. But Buttigieg has proven his doubters wrong, emerging as the face of the decidedly popular infrastructure bill. It turns out that doling out federal dollars for local projects is a very good way to build goodwill. Buttigieg is among the most natural politicians in the Democratic Party and, at age 40, can afford to wait if the 2024 or even 2028 field doesn't look promising for him.

3. Bernie Sanders: Most people assumed that the 2020 presidential race would be the Vermont senator's last. After all, he's now 80 years old, and with two unsuccessful national bids behind him, it seemed that Sanders was likely to ride into the political sunset. Nope! "In the event of an open 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Sanders has not ruled out another run for president, so we advise that you answer any questions about 2024 with that in mind," wrote Sanders adviser Faiz Shakir in a memo to allies in April. While Sanders has ruled out challenging Biden in a 2024 Democratic primary, it's easy to see him consider another run if Biden bows out. And Sanders remains the best-known -- and most well-liked -- candidate among liberals in the country.

2. Kamala Harris: The vice president appears to have steadied the ship somewhat after a decidedly rocky first year-plus in office. While Harris' political stock has taken a major hit, she would still start an open 2024 Democratic race as the frontrunner, thanks in large part to her support from Black voters. While she would start as the favorite, it's still hard to see Harris clearing the field after her struggles, so far, as Biden's second-in-command.

1. Joe Biden: There's zero question that Biden is in bad political shape at the moment -- approval ratings in the high 30s, gas at $5 a gallon, inflation the highest it has been in 40 years. There's also zero question that if Biden decides he wants to run for a second term, he will almost certainly be the party's nominee -- and probably won't have to fight all that hard for it. It's an open question as to whether that is the best thing for Democrats nationally.

10. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas: I wrestled with who should get the final spot on the list -- considering Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley among others. I eventually settled on Cotton because a) I think he is the smartest politician of that group b) he represents the sort of muscular conservatism that I think very much would appeal to Trump voters if the former President isn't in the race and c) he will outwork almost any one else in the race. Cotton's challenges are clear: He would have to prove he could raise money to be competitive and he would have lots of work to do to raise his name identification among GOP base voters.

9. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida: Scott has been perennially underestimated in his political career. First, people said that he couldn't win the governorship. He served two terms in the job. Then they said he couldn't get elected to the Senate; he knocked off longtime Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson to do just that in 2018. Scott's ambitions are clearly national in scope; his decision to release a policy agenda that he wants to implement if Republicans retake control of the Senate in 2023 is proof of that.

8. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin: Two things are true about the Virginia governor: 1) He was just elected to his first public office in 2021 and 2) He is term limited out of that job in 2025. That second point means that Youngkin, necessarily, is already keeping one eye on his future. His successful win in Virginia in 2021 was widely touted as evidence that the GOP can keep the Trump base of the party happy while also appealing to critical swing, suburban voters. I tend to think Youngkin is more VP material in the end but the success and notoriety derived from his 2021 campaign means he can't be ignored if he goes for the top job.

7. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott: While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis gets the most 2024 buzz among the Republican state executives -- more on that below -- Abbott has effectively used his perch as the top elected official in Texas to position himself for a presidential race as well. Abbott has been open about his interest in the race -- "We'll see what happens," he said in the wake of the 2020 election -- but has to win his reelection bid against former Rep. Beto O'Rourke first.

6. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley: You can count on one hand the number of high-profile Trump appointees who left the administration on good terms with the former president. Haley, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, is one of them. "She's done a fantastic job and we've done a fantastic job together," Trump said when Haley left in 2018. "We've solved a lot of problems and we're in the process of solving a lot of problems." But, Haley has also publicly flip-flopped on Trump; she was openly critical of him in the aftermath of the January 6 riot at the US Capitol before falling in line behind him once it became clear that the party's base didn't view January 6 as disqualifying for the former president.

5. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas: Don't forget that the Texas senator was the runner-up to Trump in the 2016 presidential race. And that, after a rocky relationship with Trump during the fall of 2016, Cruz has gone out of his way to make nice with the man who suggested his father might have been involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Cruz's stronger-than-expected 2016 run should not be discounted -- he has organizations in early states and a national fundraising base that is unmatched by those below him on this list.

4. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina: Like a number of people on this list, it's hard to imagine the South Carolina Senator running for president if Trump is in the field. (Scott is on record as saying he would back a Trump 2024 campaign.) But, in a Trump-less field, Scott is deeply intriguing: He is the first Black senator elected from the Deep South since Reconstruction and the first Black Republican to serve in the Senate since 1979. He's built a reliably conservative (and pro Trump) record during his nine years in the Senate while showing a willingness to work across the aisle when possible. If Republicans decide they need a new face to lead their party, Scott is at the front of that line.

3. Former Vice President Mike Pence: I really struggled on where the former vice president belonged on this list. On the one hand, he has been disowned by Trump (and the former president's loyalists) for refusing to overturn the 2020 electoral college results. On the other, Pence has tons of residual name identification from his four years as vice president and retains a solid base of support among religious conservatives. The New York Times reported last month that Pence is trying to edge away from Trump as he considers running in 2024. That's going to be a very delicate dance.

2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: There's a clear gap between the Florida governor and the rest of the Republican field not named "Donald Trump." DeSantis even managed to beat out the former President in a straw poll conducted at a Colorado conservative political conference over the weekend. DeSantis can't take his eye off the ball -- he is running for a second term this fall -- but he has, to date, very effectively used his day job as a way to boost his national profile.

1. Former President Donald Trump: If you want to find cracks in the Trump foundation, you can do it; his endorsed candidates in governor's races in places like Georgia, Nebraska and Idaho lost primaries earlier this year. But, that would miss the forest for the trees. The simple fact is that Trump remains the prime mover in Republican Party politics. If he runs -- and I absolutely believe he will -- he starts in a top tier all his own. The nomination is quite clearly his to lose -- which doesn't mean he can't lose it.

The biggest investment ever in the U.S. to fight climate change. A hard-fought cap on out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for Medicare recipients. A new corporate minimum tax to ensure big businesses pay their share.

And billions left over to pay down federal deficits.

All told, the Democrats' “Inflation Reduction Act” may not do much to immediately tame inflationary price hikes. But the package that won final congressional approval in the House on Friday and heading to the White House for President Joe Biden's signature will touch countless American lives with longtime party proposals.

Not as robust as Biden's initial ideas to rebuild America's public infrastructure and family support systems, the compromise of health care, climate change and deficit-reduction strategies is also a stunning election year turnaround, a smaller but not unsubstantial product brought back to political life after having collapsed last year.

Democrats alone support the package, with all Republicans voting against it Friday. Republicans deride the 730-page bill as big government overreach and point particular criticism at its $80 billion investment in the IRS to hire new employees and go after tax scofflaws.

Voters will be left to sort it out in the November elections, when control of Congress will be decided.

Here's what's in the estimated $740 billion package — made up of $440 billion in new spending and $300 billion toward easing deficits..

Launching a long-sought goal, the bill would allow the Medicare program to negotiate prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, saving the federal government some $288 billion over the 10-year budget window.

Those new revenues would be put back into lower costs for seniors on medications, including a $2,000 out-of-pocket cap for older adults buying prescriptions from pharmacies.

Money would also be used to provide free vaccinations for seniors, who now are among the few not guaranteed free access, according to a summary document.

The bill would extend the subsidies provided during the COVID-19 pandemic to help some Americans who buy health insurance on their own.

Under earlier pandemic relief, the extra help was set to expire this year. But the bill would allow the assistance to keep going for three more years, lowering insurance premiums for people who are purchasing their own health care policies.

The bill would invest $369 billion over the decade in climate change-fighting strategies including investments in renewable energy production and tax rebates for consumers to buy new or used electric vehicles.

It's broken down to include $60 billion for a clean energy manufacturing tax credit and $30 billion for a production tax credit for wind and solar, seen as ways to boost and support the industries that can help curb the country's dependence on fossil fuels.

For consumers, there are tax breaks as incentives to go green. One is a 10-year consumer tax credit for renewable energy investments in wind and solar. There are tax breaks for buying electric vehicles, including a $4,000 tax credit for purchase of used electric vehicles and $7,500 for new ones.

In all, Democrats believe the strategy could put the country on a path to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030, and "would represent the single biggest climate investment in U.S. history, by far."

The biggest revenue-raiser in the bill is a new 15% minimum tax on corporations that earn more than $1 billion in annual profits.

It's a way to clamp down on some 200 U.S. companies that avoid paying the standard 21% corporate tax rate, including some that end up paying no taxes at all.

The new corporate minimum tax would kick in after the 2022 tax year and raise some $313 billion over the decade.

Money is also raised by boosting the IRS to go after tax cheats. The bill proposes an $80 billion investment in taxpayer services, enforcement and modernization, which is projected to raise $203 billion in new revenue — a net gain of $124 billion over the decade.

The bill sticks with Biden's original pledge not to raise taxes on families or businesses making less than $400,000 a year.

The lower drug prices for seniors are paid for with savings from Medicare's negotiations with the drug companies.

With $739 billion in new revenue and some $433 billion in new investments, the bill promises to put the difference toward deficit reduction.

Federal deficits have spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic when federal spending soared and tax revenues fell as the nation's economy churned through shutdowns, closed offices and other massive changes.

The nation has seen deficits rise and fall in recent years. But overall federal budgeting is on an unsustainable path, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which put out a new report this week on long-term projections.

This latest package after 18 months of start-stop negotiations leaves behind many of Biden's more ambitious goals.

While Congress did pass a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill of highway, broadband and other investments that Biden signed into law last year, the president's and the party's other priorities have slipped away.

Among them, a continuation of a $300 monthly child tax credit that was sending money directly to families during the pandemic and is believed to have widely reduced child poverty.

Also gone, for now, are plans for free pre-kindergarten and free community college, as well as the nation's first paid family leave program that would have provided up to $4,000 a month for births, deaths and other pivotal needs.

Associated Press writer Matthew Daly contributed to this report.

FILE - Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a drive-in campaign stop at Bucks County Community College in Bristol, Pa., Oct. 24, 2020. Biden and his allies hope big recent wins on climate, health care and more will at least temporarily tamp down questions among top Democrats about whether he will run for reelection.